From Mish: Brace for a Wave of Foreclosures, the Dam is About to Break. Here are some eye-popping stats from his post:
- California has $2.4 trillion in mortgages debt. 42.0% of the properties have negative equity.
- Florida has $923 billion in mortgage debt. 49.4% of the properties have negative equity.
- Illinois has $447 billion in mortgage debt. 29.4% of the properties have negative equity.
- Arizona has $298 billion in mortgage debt. 51.0% of the properties have negative equity.
- Nevada has $149 billion in mortgage debt. 65.6% of the properties have negative equity.
- Nationwide there is $10.1 trillion in mortgage debt. 32.2% of the properties have negative equity. 37.6% of the properties have "near-negative" equity. [emphasis added]
And an analysis by Mark Hanson (whom Mish also cites in his post) - a worthwhile read here, with lots of graphs for the visual learners. :)
If the above stats are correct, we're looking at $3.25 trillion worth of mortgages under water, with another $3.8 trillion (give or take a few tens of billions) at the waterline. None of which have yet been foreclosed upon.
Think the banks that hold those mortgages on their balance sheets, with book values vastly above their market values, are still solvent? And when the foreclosure dam breaks, and cascading and accelerating bank failures begin, how long before the FedGov declares another "bank holiday"? Hmmm, perhaps that barter economy may not be as far off as we think it is.