Friday, November 6, 2009

Unemployment: More "green shoots"

But only if you think "green shoots" means "diseased fungal growth". Or maybe it's the economists' and cheerleader media's new euphemism for "gangrene" (that's green, right?). The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) says official unemployment (U-3) is now 10.2%. So called broad unemployment, the U-6 statistic, is at 17.5%. Read today's BLS release here.

In addition, I believe the BLS doesn't count those who are still unemployed whose initial unemployment payments have run out, even if they are still receiving extended unemployment payments. So the real numbers are likely higher, potentially much higher.

Mish Shedlock comments on the numbers here: Jobs Contract 22nd Straight Month; Unemployment Rate Hits 10.2%

Karl Denniger offers his take here: Employment Report: OUCH

Both links with charts and graphs.

Maxed Out Mama offers her take here: Unemployment Jolt. A sample [links omitted]:
The punch in the gut on this report is in Table A-5 which breaks down employed workers by class. Government employment rose by 190,000 wage and salary jobs, whereas private wage and salary non-ag jobs lost a deeply disturbing 549,000 jobs. I suspect that some of the government jobs are Census jobs, because I know they are at least holding another round of recruiting seminars (sample). But in any case, if government jobs had not increased, we would be holding the same trajectory on total jobs as in recent months. This is a total disparity with the ISM reports. I do not know what to make of it. Job losses, yes. But not to this degree, unless a huge amount of the private job losses are sitting in small businesses. And if so, they will not be coming back any time soon. [emphasis added] ...

So, but for government hiring, the rate would be even worse. And, of course, government bureaucrat jobs aren't the desirable and productive private sector jobs that we need to get us out of the hole.

Finally, Shadow Government Statistics has this chart estimating and adding in the "discouraged workers", which is the way the unemployment figures were calculated prior to a Clinton-era change:


(The SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated "discouraged workers" defined away during the Clinton Administration added to the existing BLS estimates of level U-6 unemployment. Chart: Shadow Government Statistics)


Note that with the estimate of discouraged workers included, we're looking at close to a 22% unemployment rate. That's Depression-era territory, folks.

Some green shoots, indeed. And yes, I know that unemployment is generally considered a lagging economic indicator. But it's hard to have much optimism about new job creation, especially with all the other economic destruction our government has in store for us that we can't afford -- ObamaCare, cap-and-trade, sky-high deficits, burgeoning public debt, etc., etc. Not to mention the trillions of bad commercial and residential real estate debt on the books of insolvent banks that the FedGov is doing it's best to prop up and stop the market from correcting.

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