Monday, November 9, 2009

First responders and mass shootings

From Howard Nemerov, on some stats relevant to last week's Fort Hood, TX mass shooting:
... Ron Borsch is consultant trainer for the Bedford (Ohio) Police Department, specializing in tactically training first-responders (bio in previous article). In an email today, Borsch summarized his up-to-date research into how mass murders are stopped:
My latest stats have not changed much, but CIVILIANS lead aborting rapid mass murder at 71%, and with a SINGLE actor initiating the stoppage, and often completing it at 82% of the total.
When police abort rapid mass murder, it is 29%, and with a "Single Officer Lifesaving Others"(C) SOLO at 75% of the total.
The "POSSE" Theory of rounding up a formation of officers to combat a lone (98%) and suicidal (90%) active killer in the precious 1 to 3 "Golden Minutes"(C) of a perishable opportunity has NO tracking history of success that I can find.

[Note: Borsch defines the active killer as “one who commits rapid mass murder, (4 or more intentionally killed). Active Killers typically do NOT negotiate or take hostages.” He defines rapid mass murder as one that occurs in 20 minutes or less.] ...

Read it here. Note that the Mr. Borsch's stats indicate that ordinary armed citizens have a higher success rate (more than 2 to 1) in stopping mass murder attacks. This is likely because those armed citizens are there at the time the attack started, whereas the cops are very rarely ever present at the scene when the attack starts.

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